Monday, January 24, 2005

Last week, Daniel Davies said of the Iraqi resistance:

Iraq is not Vietnam (or more specifically, Iran is not China) and they have no hope of victory. All they can really do is prolong the occupation and therefore the misery.

Funny he should mention Iran. And China.

Iran first. They seem disinclined, so far, to offer overt support to the Iraqi resistance. (Perhaps because its leadership is largely Sunni, with hints of foreign support from Salafids, and the Shiite leadership in Iraq seems so far inclined to try to keep a lid on things and go for elections. If that changed, so might Iran).

But, as we've all become a bit more aware over the past week or so, Dubya's crew seems itself inclined to make a target of Iran next. Which, strangely enough, brings up China. Chinese leaders are must be thrilled to see their main rival for superpower status wasting money and blood like water in Iraq. (Or rather like water in, say, Michigan -- water in Iraq is getting rather scarce). But if we create a similar mess in Iran, well, that's going to interfere with an awful lot of oil and gas contracts.

Mind you, this is just one element of a wide-ranging Chinese push to secure access to oil from everywhere Sudan to Canada. But it's still a significant element. So if Dubya's crew follows up on their well-nigh declared intention of destabilizing the Iranian government, then maybe we'll get to see if China is still, well, China.


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