New SecDef Gates says that Dubya's crew is not planning for a war on Iran.

Of course not. They're planning on just a few airstrikes.

If the Mahdi Army, which now "owns" Baghdad, according to American troops on the ground, decides to no longer "let [our GIs] drive around" the way they're doing at the moment, and makes the city too hot for them to occupy, well, they can honestly say they weren't planning on that. If the longtime Iranian catspaws that comprise the current Iraqi "government" formally turn on us, well, that doesn't figure into their plans either.

If Iran uses its considerable resources to block oil exports, both its own and Iraq's, from the Persian Gulf, with the attendant effects on the world economy, and ours, they certainly weren't planning on that

And if the whole thing spirals into a major, bloody regional war, they can honestly say that they weren't planning on that either.

I think...

The trumped-up excuse for raising tensions is allegations that the Iranians are, for some reason, sponsoring their long-time Baathist Sunni enemies in order to undermine their friends who are running the government. It seems, strangely enough, that a briefing on the matter has been put off several times for lack of evidence. Against Iran, at any rate. Against the Saudis, there's evidence at least as strong... which will prompt military action, well, never I guess...