Every once in a while, I run into a bit of economic dogma that just doesn't
seem right. Mostly, I just let it slide. But others aren't so embarrassed.
As when credentialed economist Tyler Cowen
asks
why the coordination problems that keep even small countries from running
planned economies don't apply to the management of General Electric, which
manages more than many small countries' GDPs. (Even Brad DeLong
offers
no easy answer). So maybe I ought to let a few of my own questions out.
So here's one. In the offshore outsourcing debate,
it's a cliche from the free-trader side that innovation can be the mainstay of
the future American economy, even as any routine job goes overseas. Here's
Daniel Drezner making
the case in a widely cited piece in Foreign Affairs:
- One thing that has made offshore outsourcing possible is the
standardization of such business tasks as data entry, accounting, and IT
support. The parts of production that are more complex, interactive, or
innovative -- including, but not limited to, marketing, research, and
development -- are much more difficult to shift abroad. As an International
Data Corporation analysis on trends in IT services concluded, "the activities
that will migrate offshore are predominantly those that can be viewed as
requiring low skill since process and repeatability are key underpinnings of
the work. Innovation and deep business expertise will continue to be delivered
predominantly onshore." Not coincidentally, these are also the tasks that
generate high wages and large profits and drive the U.S. economy.
So, here's the dumb question: does reality really work like this?
To begin with, let me try to set a few terms for the debate. To me, at
least, it isn't really about total numbers of jobs on-shore or off-shore.
Economists often make that explicit when they're modeling the effects of trade
-- they just assume full employment on all sides, to simplify things. Which
really just amounts to saying that when things all settle out,
someone will be willing to pay Americans some amount of
money to do something, so I don't even have a problem with it. And
that, in turn, means that the extensive arguments about total numbers of jobs
in Drezner's piece don't really address my own concerns in the outsourcing
debate, which are these: when things all settle out how much will
Americans get paid to do what?
Drezner seems to offer a future in which outsourcing has left high-wage
jobs in marketing and advanced R&D on shore, while routine work has gone
overseas. But some of the most publicized outsourcing and offshoring is
precisely of research and development. Business Week's "Innovation Economy"
issue last fall had an article on "Scouring
the Globe for Brainiacs" which starts out with a tour of Microsoft's new
research lab in Beijing (where Bell Labs and IBM Research also have labs in
place). It goes on to discuss hard-core R&D by native Indian firms like
Bangalore-based ITTIAM Systems:
- Founded in 2001 by seven veteran Texas Instruments executives, the
125-engineer company has found growing demand for its embedded software and
systems designs for decoding highly compressed audio and video content on the
MPEG4 format. ITTIAM's 50 clients in the U.S., Europe, and Asia have used its
designs in everything from a hand-size $199 camcorder to a "digital-media
album" that can store up to 130 hours of video and thousands of songs.
One customer is e.Digital Corp. The San Diego outfit develops multimedia
appliances such as the digEplayer, a portable in-flight entertainment system
used by 11 carriers, including Ryanair, Alaska Air Group Inc., (ALK ) and
Hawaiian Airlines Inc (HA ). The machine, sold by Tacoma (Wash.)-based APS
Inc., stores up to 30 highly compressed movies. Economy passengers rent the
player for around $10 to watch what and when they please. "We're constantly
scouring the world for high-performance technologies that are already out
there," says e.Digital Senior Vice-President Robert Putman.
So, we have here an example of this San Diego-based company where a lot of
the R&D jobs behind their new products have been effectively outsourced
overseas. Which is an increasingly common pattern. Many American venture
capitalists want the startups they invest in to have an
outsourcing strategy even at a stage so early that R&D is the major
expense.
A common dodge in arguments like this, by the way, is to say that only the
boring, less innovative parts of the development process are going off shore
(thus applying the conclusions of Drezner's IDC study to the R&D process
itself). It's not clear to me why anyone believes that, other than pure
chauvinism: if Indians in India can do it, whatever it is, it must not be all
that hard. So, looking at the list of projects ongoing
in IBM's New Delhi lab, we can discover that developing new analytic
techniques for analyzing
magnetic resonance brain imagery and applying open source technologies and
practices to the problems of
government are boring jobs that require no real innovation.
But let's grant the contention, for the sake of argument, that only "low
skill" jobs are going overseas (and that computer programmers and M.D.s interpreting X-rays have
low skill jobs, because those jobs are going overseas). We're then left with
the problem that low skill jobs, particularly by such an inclusive definition
of "low skill", are most of them. Not everyone wants to get a job in
advanced R&D or marketing (or the unspecified other areas that Drezner
points to). Not everyone could if they wanted to -- for many, it would take
years of expensive education training that they can't afford. Particularly
not if they're still paying down the loans on training for one of the IT jobs
now going overseas, from back when the cliche was that it didn't matter that
manufacturing was vanishing, because IT jobs were the future of the American
economy.
(But the gurus have learned their lesson from that little episode. "You
have to take the leap of faith that the economy will evolve and there will be
this innovation economy that comes", opines
outsourcing guru John McCarthy of Forrester Research. And is roundly
roasted for it by Brad DeLong's commenters, because even if you share his
faith that The Quasi-Deified
Market will provide a new innovation economy, he offers no hint at all as
to who it will hire).
Besides, in making that argument, pro-globalizers seem to forget where they
started. The whole point of globalization is that anyone can provide
any service to anyone else, anywhere. That includes innovative research and
development as much as any other type of service -- as in the projects I
mentioned above which IBM has outsourced to New Delhi. All you need to be
productive as a computer science researcher is a net connection and a computer
in an office, with a semi-reliable connection to a power grid. (At the power
levels required by modern PCs, a commercial uninterruptable power supply will
cover glitches that would really put a kink in a manufacturing operation). And
the best Chinese and Indian researchers, trained in many cases in American
universities, are as good as the best Americans. So, to restate my first dumb
question about economics: why does anyone think that "innovation" will mean more
to the economy of twenty-first century America than it did to post-World-War-II
Britain, where the first jet airliner was built, the first modern computers were
built (and the first company -- a chain of tea shops of all things -- made use
of computers in daily work), the structure of DNA was discovered, and the economy
as a whole didn't do much.
By the way, to answer one ad hominem that pro-globalization
flacks frequently toss at their critics, I have absolutely no problem with Indians and
Chinese trying to do the best for themselves and their economies. My problem
is with Americans who suggest that we as a society should ignore obvious
deleterious trends and, like McCarthy, have faith that the Market will correct
them, and offer well-paid, intellectually rewarding jobs for everyone, without
offering any convincing reason to believe that it will.
There is, however, an more sophisticated pro-globo argument
-- that all of the problems that are associated in the popular American
discourse with outsourcing really shouldn't be, and that what's actually going
on is structural changes in the American economy which are hitting workers in
the gut. The Brad DeLong piece
I mentioned earlier will serve as a decent example, and I actually do buy that
argument as far as it goes -- though I may have some stupid questions later
about how far that is, and whether the solutions commonly proferred for those
problems are realistic. But for now, I'm just trying to address the
"innovation" argument, and stupidly asking why anyone buys it.